Eurusd and the 4th Day

Today's trade idea is following suit with my recent analysis and popped up today. It appears that we have a bullish power of 3 setup on the daily. Remember, we don't count the Sunday candle. Tuesday's price action brought on more bullishness and new highs. For now, market flow on the daily chart is bullish.

Market flow is still pointing north.

According to the Power of 3 setup, since Wednesday is the 4th day in the setup, we're going to be hunting a level to get long below the day's opening price. The level must have a high probability price as well as a confluence of other factors that would lead you to believe that the market will react when it gets to that price.

I'm thinking that we might be OTE Long around 1.0780-1.0770ish. Otherwise, I think we take a dip down to 1.0730ish. 

The eurusd pair is very close to significant highs and looks like its getting ready to run a touch higher. However, I wouldn't be surprised if we retrace and run some stops down lower.

Took +18 pips on 2/3 of my position. Possible ICT Reflection pattern against Resistance. Not much but I'll take it. https://t.co/TFC35VAIx9 pic.twitter.com/NVkRJGBOj0

— Manny G (@GGoodpunk6) March 21, 2017

I did manage to take a very small chunk of the price action and was stopped out at +1 on the final portion of my trade.

Resist or Resistance

The Daily Chart shows that we are currently near a previous high and at the time of this post, the current price action might set up a bearish Power of 3 pattern. It will be invalidated if we trade higher than, 1.0777ish.

I also think that we are against a H1 Bearish Order Block and that price might play out an Optimal Trade Entry Short. There are stops below at levels ICT would call, "too clean."

Winning Trade! eurusd trade

A couple of weeks ago, I predicted that this month would see its fair share of bullishness and so far it has delivered.

I installed an EA that will take a screenshot of an entry and exit and will plot the trade on the chart for me automatically. We can easily see where I entered the market and subsequently scaled out of it.

I took the first half of my trade off at +20 pips! After moving my stop to 1 pip over Break Even, I was able to nullify my risk and since I had already made money on the trade, I let the market do the rest of the work for me!

Earlier, I took 1/2 of my position off the board at +20. Moved stop to BE+1 #killingitICTstyle #Traders #eurusd https://t.co/TFC35VAIx9 pic.twitter.com/3f0lbwKxhI

— Manny G (@GGoodpunk6) March 15, 2017

A little while later...

Just took the rest off of the table at +72!!! #killingitICTstyle @ICT_MHuddleston https://t.co/TFC35VAIx9 #eurusd #Traders https://t.co/bSDxs92O3w

— Manny G (@GGoodpunk6) March 15, 2017

As you can see in the free chart below and as per ICT's concepts, I chose the 161.8 extension of the swing that we were currently working in as Take Profit Objective.

Today's price action was very clear and deliberate. I never follow the news and was able to tell where the market was going to test even before the fed news. As a matter of fact, I didn't even know that there was going to be a fed, "whatever," until just a couple of hours beforehand. This did not affect my view in any way shape or form.

As shown above, we easily cleared that and pushed far beyond the high I anticipated.

When you use ICT's method's, you know that you analyze the Weekly Chart (W1), and draw a lot of your bias from the H4, D1, and W1 charts. Afterwards, you look to your H1 Time Frame chart and you can see the litany of setups all week.

Below you can see that price traded down into a H1 Bullish Order Block that also matched up with an Asian Range High from last week, that also happened to be the high probability level of 1.0600. As you might have guessed, 1.0600 has been a previous level of Support and Resistance. In this example, price was being tested as support.

Once price returned to clear the other side of the Asian Range, we can easily conclude where price is heading for the day.  Fed or not.

GBPUSD Long buy setup fulfilled

We trade on the fourth day in the direction that is opposite of the fractal.

Monday saw the gbpusd push higher from it's recent lows. Again, I was anticipating higher prices based on the Power of 3 setup on the Daily Higher Time Frame idea chart. I outlined that analysis yesterday and can be found here. A Power of 3, a Smart Money Trade Divergence, and a Higher Time Frame Optimal Trade Entry buy pattern are enough confluence to have a Long bias.

The Asian Range is defined as 0-5 GMT.

As you can see in the picture above, with support below and price pulling back to a little above the Asian range, price entered an Optimal Trade Entry buy setup and rallied to new highs.

The best time to have gotten long would have been during the Asian Range on Sunday. Unfortunately, I wasn't watching the Asian Range price action on Sunday. I was also just waking up when price quickly dipped into the OTE "Range," a second time. Despite anticipating a bullish move and planning my trade around that, I missed the opportunity.

It's a great thing that the market provides opportunities every single day!  On to the next setup!

GBPUSD Trade Idea, EURUSD let's keep it moving

Last week I pointed out a possible Smart Money Trade Divergence here. It was one of the contributing factors to such a successful trade idea. Again, I'm grateful to have been part of the trade.

With the possible Smart Money Trade Divergence in mind, we know this week will bring new opportunities! From glancing at the charts I can see that a possible long scenario could be in play in the gbpusd.

Monday might see a move higher as it will be the 4th day (trade day) in the Power of 3 setup. 

With the recent rally in the eurusd, it's conceivable that the gbpusd too will retrace from its recent sell off.  With a possible Power of 3 setup on the daily idea chart, last week's price low hit the 127.1 extension of the previous week's range, and also hit the 79.3 fibonacci retracement of the rally from 1.1987ish to 1.2705ish.  The level of 1.2140 has also been an area of recent support.  This idea will be completely invalidated if we trade below 1.1980.

With stops resting just above the market and support below, we may have a favorable long setup.

On Friday, in the eurusd, we could surmise that the opportunity to buy was during the New York Open Killzone. Price retraced into the Asian Range and traded into an Optimal Trade Entry setup in favor of our Higher Timeframe analysis I covered here.  Had you been a bull going into the week, NFP or not, you would have hauled in some pips.

According to ICT, price will sometimes retrace into the Asian Range during one of the Killzones and provide a clean entry into the market.

As for the coming week, we can see in the idea chart below, that Friday's rally traded directly into a 61.8 fibonacci retracement.  This coincides with the stops that were run near the 1.0680 previous high. It is very possible that we may see a retracement that takes us into the Buy Order Block near 1.0590 or 1.0545.

Friday's high has nullified that stops that previously rested there.  By creating a new high we may turned Market Flow north.

Beware, there are stops close below that are ready to be raided. Depending how the week progresses, being short near the 1.0730 level might be the better call.

Successful Trade Idea

I took a couple of longs this week that worked out well.  One much better than the other.  All in all I hauled in about 100 pips for the week.  ICT, if you're reading this, thanks a lot!!

When I took this screenshot, I was already long from 1.0530 and taken half of my position off of the table at +25.  I moved my stop to BreakEven +1.  I was able to let the rest go at 1.0585.  

If you weren't able to get the long down at the Daily Order Block (in blue on the chart above), then the New York Open Killzone, where an OTE long occured, is where you could have jumped in.  Notice that the NYO OTE Long occured right against the Asian high.  There was a lot of confluence today.

The chart above is from my post here. As you can see, I predicted these levels to be long opportunities. I'm fortunate that I was able to get an order filled 

SMT Divergence?

As you can see, the eurusd has failed to make a lower low.  However, it has also failed to create a higher high.

The idea chart above, is a possible Smart Money Trade divergence.  As you can see, the gbpusd is moving lower while the eurusd is being accumulated.  It is possible that we might be forming a low in the eurusd.

If not, then the lows near 1.0495 and 1.0350 might be targets.

In my previous post, I mention 1.0530 and 1.0560 as possible trade ideas.  It might still be the case.